WSOP Last Longer Bets
By Ross Glacken
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer
If you are reading this article, then I can assume you are as much of a poker junkie as I am. The World Series of Poker is in full swing, and if you have been following all the events so far you will surely know that many of the top pros are doing exceedingly well, with multiple final tables and first-place finishes to their name. My top pro for the Series so far is easily Phil Hellmuth.
Phil has gone back to his roots and is playing his best poker for years, taking chances at the right times and picking his spots almost perfectly. As such I have been searching for bets to place on him, the best being some of the last longer bets available.
Phil is available at 8-1 on some sportsbooks in a last longer bet against Phil Ivey, John Juanda, Scotty Nguyen, Scott Fischman, Eric Seidel, Daniel Negreanu, Chris Ferguson, Dan Harrington, Howard Lederer, Gus Hanson, Andy Black. Although this appears a tough field at first look, it is really a great price against these players – especially considering the others' performances so far.
Within this market the main contenders against Hellmuth are Negreanu (9-1, not a bad bet) and Ivey (6-1). Negreanu has made multiple deep cashes, and Ivey is always a force to be reckoned with. These are easily the top three in this market, making 8-1 a superb price for Hellmuth.
As discussed in my last article, Hellmuth is scoring high on all traits I consider necessary to go deep:
- Recent Form: Hellmuth is running great, picking his spots well, reading opponents perfectly and even making brilliant comebacks – never letting bad beats get the best of him.
- Hunger To Win: This is possibly Hellmuth's strongest trait – he is 100 percent determined to prove to everyone that he really is the best poker player in the world, with the best all-around skills. With luck on his side he is almost unbeatable, even against the best.
- Skill/Experience: Hellmuth has been wining major poker tournaments since he was 21. He is the youngest player ever to win the main event and has been playing at the top levels (especially in tournaments) ever since – more than 20 years. He has all the skill, experience and determination necessary to win the whole thing. (400-1 at one sportsbook, not a terrible bet)
- Age: Hellmuth is 42 years young and in great condition. He works out every day, keeps healthy and even trains mentally. He is in perfect condition to go the distance – especially when combined with his determination and skill.
- Style Of Play: In recent years Hellmuth was frustrated by rookie players playing out of the box strategies – essentially trying to outflop and suck out on him. This year, however, he has adjusted his game to take advantage of such rookie players and is not afraid to gamble and go with his reads – which so far have been dead on. He has been playing perfect, tight aggressive poker, accumulating chips and creating a dominant table image -- I am positive that he will continue with this style. He understands the new, younger generation poker dynamic now and has developed a strategy to counteract it.
On a mathematical level these odds are too good to pass on, and to be honest I am amazed they are available at all. I might not bet the house on Phil, but I will certainly be betting the shed and car at least.