Ruy Teixeira, The Century Foundation
Does the public oppose a ban on online gambling? Well, if you believe a recent poll conducted by Zogby International for onlinegamingmythsandfact.com, they certainly do . . . in fact, they overwhelming oppose such a ban. For example, by 71 percent to 16 percent, they oppose stopping “adult Americans from gambling with licensed and regulated online sportsbooks and casinos based in other countries.”
Pretty overwhelming. But there’s a huge problem with this result: the poll question essentially told people what to think about this activity, then asked them what they think. Here’s the full question wording:
“More than 80 percent of Americans believe that gambling is a question of personal choice that should not be interfered with by the government. Do you agree or disagree that the federal government should stop adult Americans from gambling with licensed and regulated online sportsbooks and casinos based in other countries?”
The poll used exactly the same approach with another question:
“Many gambling experts believe that Internet gambling will continue no matter what the government does to try to stop it. Do you agree or disagree that the federal government should allocate government resources and spend taxpayer money trying to stop adult Americans from gambling online?”
Not surprisingly, by 77 percent to 11 percent, respondents didn’t want their “taxpayer money,” as the question helpfully reminded them, wasted on trying to do something they were just told could not be done!
This is polling at its worst. It proves nothing other than if you shamelessly lead a respondent in a certain direction, they are likely to go in that direction.
And wait, there’s more! Not only are these poll questions hopelessly biased, they are not based on anything close to a random sample of the public and therefore would constitute proof of nothing, even if you accepted the absurd question wording as valid.
That is because—though the poll’s press release mysteriously failed to mention it—this “scientific poll of over 30,000 likely voters,” with a “margin of error” of just “0.6 percent percentage points” is not a random sample telephone poll, but rather an online poll whose sample was drawn from Zogby’s volunteer internet panel. Therefore, the poll’s sample is representative only of the type of individuals who have volunteered to join Zogby’s online panel, not the general public, which means it is neither “scientific” nor possessed of a meaningful “margin of error.”
For those wishing more information on this sad episode in polling, about which all involved should be ashamed, I recommend the excellent Wall Street Journal article by Carl Bialek and the detailed analysis provided by Mark Blumenthal on his Mystery Pollster website. But most of all, I recommend you pay absolutely no attention to this ridiculous poll.
Ruy Teixeira is a Senior Fellow at The Century Foundation and the Center for American Progress.
Does the public oppose a ban on online gambling? Well, if you believe a recent poll conducted by Zogby International for onlinegamingmythsandfact.com, they certainly do . . . in fact, they overwhelming oppose such a ban. For example, by 71 percent to 16 percent, they oppose stopping “adult Americans from gambling with licensed and regulated online sportsbooks and casinos based in other countries.”
Pretty overwhelming. But there’s a huge problem with this result: the poll question essentially told people what to think about this activity, then asked them what they think. Here’s the full question wording:
“More than 80 percent of Americans believe that gambling is a question of personal choice that should not be interfered with by the government. Do you agree or disagree that the federal government should stop adult Americans from gambling with licensed and regulated online sportsbooks and casinos based in other countries?”
The poll used exactly the same approach with another question:
“Many gambling experts believe that Internet gambling will continue no matter what the government does to try to stop it. Do you agree or disagree that the federal government should allocate government resources and spend taxpayer money trying to stop adult Americans from gambling online?”
Not surprisingly, by 77 percent to 11 percent, respondents didn’t want their “taxpayer money,” as the question helpfully reminded them, wasted on trying to do something they were just told could not be done!
This is polling at its worst. It proves nothing other than if you shamelessly lead a respondent in a certain direction, they are likely to go in that direction.
And wait, there’s more! Not only are these poll questions hopelessly biased, they are not based on anything close to a random sample of the public and therefore would constitute proof of nothing, even if you accepted the absurd question wording as valid.
That is because—though the poll’s press release mysteriously failed to mention it—this “scientific poll of over 30,000 likely voters,” with a “margin of error” of just “0.6 percent percentage points” is not a random sample telephone poll, but rather an online poll whose sample was drawn from Zogby’s volunteer internet panel. Therefore, the poll’s sample is representative only of the type of individuals who have volunteered to join Zogby’s online panel, not the general public, which means it is neither “scientific” nor possessed of a meaningful “margin of error.”
For those wishing more information on this sad episode in polling, about which all involved should be ashamed, I recommend the excellent Wall Street Journal article by Carl Bialek and the detailed analysis provided by Mark Blumenthal on his Mystery Pollster website. But most of all, I recommend you pay absolutely no attention to this ridiculous poll.
Ruy Teixeira is a Senior Fellow at The Century Foundation and the Center for American Progress.