Solid citizens can play some casino games
at an advantage. Card counters at blackjack and controlled
shooters at craps do it. Both skills demand dedication to
master and sustain, and both require finesse to use since the
bosses will take countermeasures if they suspect what you're
doing. But they're neither cheating nor illegal. Further, they
exploit inherent features of the games rather than loopholes
that could be closed once understood.
Make believe you could master some such
technique. No matter how adept you become, the best you can
hope to achieve is between 0.5 and 1.5 percent edge. How
confident of a regular paycheck would you be if you knew you
could sustain, say, 1 percent edge?
One way to answer involves the action
needed to reach some average earnings based solely on that 1
percent. Posit a target of $1,000 per week. The 1 percent
implies a handle of $100,000. Handle is gross wager, not cash
in your fanny pack. At blackjack, averaging $100 per round,
one hand at tables with four total spots receiving cards would
mean 10 hours. At $25 per hand, the time jumps to 40 hours.
More crowded tables take longer because rounds dealt per hour
decrease. With fewer players it's faster, but you'd probably
fear calling too much attention to yourself.
Averaging $1,000 per week ignores the inevitable swings in
your fortunes. You might not balk at winning $49,000 one week,
then losing $5,000 every week for the next two months. It also
works if you lose $5,000 per week for two months then win
$49,000. But, if your bankroll is only $40,000, you won't be
there the ninth week to try. To decide whether having an edge
will let you turn pro, you must therefore also weigh the
chance of going bust.
In principle, professional gamblers
should treat their total assets as their bankrolls. In
practice, you may not be ready to take a truly long-term view
and put your house, car, retirement or other savings, and
credit card borrowing limits at risk.
Maybe, instead, you envision a scenario
such as a $4,000 limit on your loss in any week or a $16,000
rout in any month. With this, you can ascertain the chance of
reaching your goal a) weekly being up by $1,000 before you're
down $4,000, b) monthly being up $4,000 before you're down
$16,000, and c) week-in and week-out by winning $1,000 before
losing $4,000 for eight weeks running.
The specifics depend on the game you
select, the strategy you use, and the way you size and vary
your bets. To get an idea of what can happen, assume your
system gives you 1 percent edge and a "standard deviation" of
3 units (picture this as a typical bankroll change of $300 up
or down per coup), on an average bet of $100 per round. For
comparison, Basic Strategy at blackjack with flat bets of $100
per hand would have an edge of 0.5 percent for the house and a
standard deviation of 1.13 units.
The accompanying table shows that with
the edge, bankrolls, and profit goals indicated, you're
favored either weekly or monthly. Likewise, although less so,
when you're a slight underdog. The data also indicate that
while you have a strong upper hand weekly, you can't expect a
paycheck week upon week.
Chance of meeting profit
goal before losing stake
under favorable and slightly unfavorable conditions
| Condition |
Edge +1.0 |
Edge -0.5 |
| |
Std. Dev: 3.00 |
Std. Dev: 1.13 |
| win $1,000 before
losing $4,000 |
81% |
77% |
| win $4,000 before losing $16,000 |
83% |
66% |
| win $1,000 before losing $4,000
before 8 weeks in a row |
18% |
12% |
Casinos make money with a small edge by
relying on the law of large numbers. You may not be able to do
the same because numbers that seem large to you are small to
the casino and to the statistics underlying most gambling
situations. So, learn to play at an advantage if you're
motivated enough to acquire the skills. But don't kid yourself
into thinking you won't have downs as well as ups. Here's how
the poet, Sumner A Ingmark, put it:
Of certainty, having
a higher degree,
Is far from the same as a flat guarantee.
