Some so-called
"soft" two-card blackjack hands,
incorporating aces, offer players more
"expected" profit by doubling down than
by hitting or standing versus low dealer
upcards. This is why the move is
specified in those Basic Strategy
charts. Doubling, if you're a neophyte,
means matching your original bet with an
auxiliary wager then drawing one and
only one additional card.
The statistical
differences between the optimal and next
best options to manage the alternatives
for these situations are not
overwhelming. However, understanding and
proficient handling of soft doubles does
distinguish solid citizens praying for
elusive good fortune from gamblers
fearing occasional bad luck.
Basic Strategy
for soft doubles is simpler than most
individuals imagine. With the two lowest
candidates, soft 13 or 14, double only
against a dealer's five or six. With the
two highest, soft 17 or 18, double
against a three, four, five, or six.
With the two in between, soft 15 or 16,
double in between against a four, five,
or six. That's it. No other soft totals.
No other upcards.
Ordinarily,
blackjack players would be well-advised
to follow the dogma of Basic Strategy.
It surely beats being struck by a bolt
of lightning. An eventuality many
believe befalls those who don't double
when it's decreed. This would exemplify
a sin of omission, which Ogden Nash (in
"Portrait of the Artist as a Prematurely
Old Man"
described as "bad in the eyes
of all right-thinking people, from Billy
Sunday to Buddha,/ And it consists of
not having done something you shudda."
The faithful also dread disaster if
anyone doubles when "the book" otherwise
ordains. This would typify a sin of
commission, which Nash pictured as "very
important,/ And is what you are doing
when you are doing something you ortant."
Casinos aren't
ordinary places, though. So "ordinarily"
doesn't always count. And breaking the
rules may not be wholly unwise,
depending on your personal preferences
and the prevailing winds.
In particular,
chances of winning ?? as opposed to
expected profit ?? are slightly greater
hitting soft 13 through 17 or standing
on soft 18 than doubling. Say, for
instance, you have soft 15 or 16 versus
four-up, with so much at risk on the
hand that you'd sweat adding what it
takes to double. You might prefer the
increased shot at winning less, to the
elevated exposure you get by boosting
expectation a bit, so you prudently hit.
Alternately, what
if you were hell bent for leather or
going for broke? Then, you might
rationally accept small penalties in
likelihood of winning and edge, opting
to try for the extra profit by doubling
on soft 18 with the dealer showing a
deuce.
How much edge does an optimist sacrifice
by consistently doubling into dealer
twos, threes, and fours when the math is
tilted toward hitting or standing?
Assuming otherwise perfect Basic
Strategy in games where players can
resplit pairs, house advantage would
rise from 0.44 to 0.49 percent with
eight decks and from 0.42 to 0.47
percent with six ?? equivalent to five
cents per $100 bet during the course of
a session either way.
Were you a
confirmed pessimist you probably
shouldn't be gambling at all. In case
you were, though, by standing on those
soft 18s and hitting on the other
recommended soft doubles, edge would
creep up from 0.44 to 0.53 percent with
eight decks and 0.42 to 0.51 percent
with six. You'd be enriching the casinos
nine cents more than they demand for
every $100 you wagered.
As ever, you have
to decide this for yourself, considering
such subjective factors as your
temperament and goals. If you do elect
to flout the gurus, you can take solace
n the fact that the worse the bosses
think you play, the higher they'll rate
you for comps. The poet laureate of the
casinos, Sumner A Ingmark, bows to Ogden
Nash to give you guidance in which
direction to go:
No, you never get any fun
Out of things you haven't done.
But they are the things that I do not
like to be amid,
Because the suitable things you didn't
do give you a lot more trouble than the
unsuitable things you did.
The moral is that it is probably better
not to sin at all, but if some kind of
sin you must be pursuing,
Well, remember to do it by doing rather
than by not doing.
