Should You Bother to Learn the Optimum Strategy for Video Poker?
By Alan Krigman
|
Payoff schedule on a typical
deuces wild
video poker machine, for five coins bet |
|
| hand |
return
|
| natural royal |
4,000
|
| four deuces |
1,000
|
| wild royal |
125
|
| five of a kind |
75
|
| straight flush |
45
|
| four of a kind |
25
|
| full house |
15
|
| flush |
10
|
| straight |
10
|
| three of a kind |
5
|
Pretend you're dealt A-H J-H 7-D 6-D 5-H. Intuition might suggest holding the ace and jack of hearts, hoping for a natural royal with backups from three of a kind through anything except five of a kind or four deuces. The statistically expected return on this hand, considering all possible outcomes and their chances, is 1.44 coins. Dumping the lot has an expected return of 1.62 coins.
Make believe, instead, that you start with K-S J-C 10-C 7-H 4-D. Would the previous example tell you to discard them all? The math says otherwise. Doing so has an expected return of 1.60 coins but holding the jack and 10 of clubs is worth 1.86. The situations diverge owing mainly to the additional ways to make a straight flush, flush, or straight in this instance than in the first.
What if you begin with 2-S A-H K-S J-H 8-C? Keeping the deuce along with the ace, king, and jack may seem a good choice since there are lots of ways you could get a straight or triplets. This option has an expected return of 3.30 coins. But holding only the deuce, ace, and jack is considerably better, having an expected return of 5.14 coins. And a truly proficient player would pitch everything but the deuce for an expected return of 5.18 coins.
How about receiving 2-D 2-H A-D
10-D 3-D? Standing pat guarantees 10 coins back for the
flush. But you know you'll receive at least five, with
triplets, by retaining only the deuces. This, indeed, is
a better alternative, with an expected return of 16.30
coins. Better, but not best. When the beads come to rest
on the abacus, they reveal that keeping everything other
than the three maximizes the expected return at 21.91
coins.
Some distinctions are clearly more important than
others. It's obviously worth knowing how to boost
expected return from 10.00 or even 16.30 to 21.91 coins.
Likewise from 3.30 to 5.18 coins. On the other hand, the
offset between expected returns of 5.14 and 5.18 won't
make either you or the casino bosses rich. Still,
although gambling can be entertaining and exciting if
you just toss your money into the air and see where it
lands, it's far more interesting and satisfying when you
know what you're doing.
How can you learn an optimum decision strategy? There are primers aplenty on the topic. Browse in any bookstore within shouting range of a casino, or shop on the Internet, and take your pick.
Another method, which can be more
fun, is to play video poker on a computer with software
showing the expected value corresponding to various
choices and even telling what's best. Buy a program. Or
play on-line, free, for any of several different video
poker configurations, at http://wizardofodds.com. (You
can also print out rules for various versions of video
poker at the same authoritative website.) It shouldn't
take long practicing like this for you to reach a point
where the most propitious choices, or at least those
that are close to optimum, come to you on auto-pilot.
It's a path to proficiency for which the pedantic poet,
Sumner A Ingmark, plainly expressed a preference when he
penned:
Seek leisure
activity not just recreational,
But with a proclivity to be educational.
Alan Krigman is a weekly syndicated newspaper gaming columnist and Editor & Publisher of Winning Ways, a monthly newsletter for casino aficionados. His columns are focused on those who are interested in gambling probability and statistics.
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